July 20, 2009

Using your heart too much in fantasy

Fantasy football like many things sports related comes down to numbers. Often I feel that fantasy players use their heart too much in choosing players either via the draft or to start from week to week. This can only be trouble. Now, I won't say I am not completely guilt free when it comes to this. For one, I don't care if Phil Rivers is the number one QB in the league...that little bitch will never even warm the bench on my team. Also, I don't like Hines Ward (maybe it's his weird face), but fortunately for me, he is only a very mediocre WR2 at the very best. But if I can't win with those assholes not on my team, then I don't deserve to win.
On the other end of the spectrum, there aren't really any players I love. In my mind, this is even more important to fantasy success. How many times have you started a player in a slump (LT last year, Taylor) and it turned out to be a mistake? Often I feel that nagging in the back of my mind when I am setting my roster for the week, "But I used a such-and-such pick on this guy, how can I sit him?" The ability to respond to this question with, "Because I have a player on my bench who has performed consistently better these past few weeks."- can make or break your season. How many people drafted Chris Johnson or Steve Slaton last year behind such names as Ryan Grant, Larry Johnson, LT, Darren McFadden, and Willie Parker? Yet, anyone can look back on last season and clearly see that either one of these two guys was clearly the safer play from week to week. The ability to recognize this quickly and acting on it can mean the difference between making the playoffs and not making the playoffs. A personal example would be Braylon Edwards last year. Now I had Braylon on my team in '07, and he was absolute money...a TD machine. In '08, save for the first game I didn't play him (against the Giants on MNF) he was a disaster. The ability to say-"He just doesn't have it this year, and until he can put together back-to-back weeks of decent play he will not start for me."-honestly saved my season.
Remember, fantasy is all about the numbers...numbers don't have personalities, numbers don't know anything about the draft, and numbers don't lie.

4 comments:

  1. I agree. It's much harder to sit a guy that you valued so high at the beginning of the year that many realize. Beyond being able to follow the numbers and realize when to bench a guy, it's also important to know when to sacrifice an 12th man on your team to pick up a promising performer. If you would like to take my fantasy football seminar please visit my website fantasyfootball.com and sign up soon because spots are filling up fast.

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  2. So you are telling me that starting Larry Johnson for the first 6 weeks of the season waiting for the breakout game was a bad idea?

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  3. It officially became a bad idea after his one point game in week three.

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