Mathematics of Talent this year

As we in the "Triumvirate" (when collectively referring to Jason, Taylor, and Scott from now on, this address would be preferred) were discussing, the running back talent is sketchy relative to wide receivers this year.  We believe there are clear tiers for the running backs and there is a much more vague delineation between wide receivers.  In addition, due to the presence of RB committees, the production falls off rather sharply.  Finally, as we all know, you are less likely to be able to predict the performance of players which are chosen later in the draft, or not at all.  Barring very severe outliers such as Chris Johnson/Steve Slaton in '08 and Miles Austin in '09, I try to illustrate these points mathematically in the figure below.  You can see the RB ideal curve for this years draft has a discontinuous character more in line with a series of step functions convolved with a line.  For the WR ideal curve however, the function is more continuous and is represented by a classical sigmoid (modified logistic function) convolved with a line.  To make the prediction more realistic, I have included noise on top of these data.  The noise itself is also a monotonically increasing function of "Draft Order for Respective Position", although the RB data are noisier as is often the case.   Cheerio.  And please read the previous post by our esteemed commissioner.

The Progression of a Gentlemen's Game

Most upstanding pirate gentlemen, I am writing to welcome all of you back for the official beginning of the Gentlemen's Game pre-season. It's time to begin open door discussions of league rules, trades, and other important fantasy reforms. I know there has been much fantasy chatter behind closed doors, particularly among the now infamous "Big Three". Jason, Taylor, and Scott have been busy hatching plots to make the rich even richer while myself and Oldman have been unionizing the rest of the league in order to promote progressive reforms that would have a leveling affect on the league and keep things interesting. The main objective of this post is to ask that we begin to take our discussions league wide (bring it to the blog). I have caused a stir with some by proclaiming that I will no longer be operating this league as a democracy. Though I would prefer to bring an iron fisted approach to the leadership of our league and promote only those changes that would benefit myself, I could not, in good conscience, operate this prestigious league in such a way. As in years past, we must bring any and all ideas and concerns to an open forum for debate and vote. In addition, I really think we need to start the hype machine for this season. To do this, lets get the blog hopping with posts. Last year I felt like Taylor's weekly wrap up of the weekend's games was an excellent addition to the hype. Scott has done solid work as well, giving his perspective on players and teams to watch. Jason, we need access to more of your wit and brilliance. Ben, we need you to begin stirring the pot as only you can...end some friendships and create draft day tension my friend. John, all of your old nonsensical comments are welcomed. Brandon, more hyperlinks please. I think you all get the point.

Now for some issues that need to be discussed openly before the season:

1) I suggest a change in the waiver/free agent system this year. I speak not only for myself, but I believe many others in saying that it is becoming increasingly difficult to spend Sunday afternoons watching football and checking stats in order to jump on the next best free agent. I would prefer to have a 3 day waiver period where managers can put in bids for free agents. The order of waiver preference would rotate on a weekly basis.

2) We need to discuss people's availability for the draft. Last year we did it on Labor Day weekend. I know Brandon is out for that weekend, but I need to hear from the rest of you.

3) Scoring and Playoffs. Do we have any suggestions for changes to the scoring format or playoffs.

4) Off Season Trades. Remember, these must be brought to the league managers for a vote. There must be a at least 6 votes for the trade for it to go through.

5) Any other miscellaneous items that I have missed, please bring those up as well.

I look forward to starting the hype machine. Let the pre-season begin.

A Season of Fate's Near Perfection

It seems like a Vulcan millenium ago that I made a fascinating run through the playoffs to only be stopped in the championship game by my old roommate who spent years as my fantasy football apprentice. In one way, I was happy for this young lad who beat his master in such an important game. I still remember this boy running into my room with magazines and internet reports eager to prove his worth to me as the side-car to my Harley Davidson. I taught him how to fantasy, taught him every single thing he knows, and now I can finally call him a worthy opponent.

Now that that is out of the way - I'm looking forward to this season more than ever. I've finally got the school and looking for a job and going out and partying every night and meeting tons of girls out of the way. I'm settled in. I've got a job that keeps me in the house. I'm drinking and partying a lot less. I'm finally ready to give fantasy a good effort.

I know what you are all thinking - you've been giving it a good effort. Know that I appreciate it. But the fact is, my life was way too busy to put the necessary attention on fantasy. This is to blame for my two championship losses in the past two years. I personally guarantee each of you the trophy will come to Lexington next year.

As that little naive boy who used to come to me seeking advices said yesterday - it's time to get serious. Well, you pirate gentlemen, let me tell you this - I've finally gotten serious.

The Lions might be good this year? and other thoughts

I'll be honest, I like what the Lions have done this offseason.  They have actually acquired some talent and addressed some glaring needs...like every position.  I think Matt Stafford will be fine as long as he can not get sandwiched between the ground and some beast of a man more than twice per game.  They have made great strides to shore up their D line especially, and I think Suh will be one of the best players in the NFL within a few years.  One thing's for sure, I am not pleased that Adrian Peterson will have to see this beast twice per year.  Let's hope he never sees this side of Suh. I love the acquisition of Burleson and Scheffler.  And I think the move to get Jahvid Best was one of the "Best" in the draft.  Whereas Kevin Smith might be one of the NFL's most boring running backs, Best will provide some excitement.  I do expect Smith to still see plenty of action, but there might be something more like a White/Johnson split of two years ago.  It's a pity they play in one of the hardest divisions in the NFL, but I must say that I am impressed with their obvious desire to improve.  I will be cheering for them next year, save when Peterson is on the other side of the ball (not that I'm keeping him or anything).
I also like what the Redskins have done, but that backfield is going to be typical Shanahan when it comes to fantasy.  And who is McNabb going to throw to?  At any rate, this team will be useless from a fantasy perspective. 
What were the Bills thinking drafting Spiller?  It just seems to me that they have many more pressing needs than another running back.  How about a pass rush?  How about a better O-line?  How about a wide receiver?  What was once an exciting rookie prospect just became much less exciting.
And finally, what in the hell was Al Davis thinking when he made the decision to draft Rolando McClain?  Did he not see this guy's 40 time?  This is actually a good pick, and an outrage! Maybe Davis has become so senile that he couldn't remember where the war room was, and they made the pick without him.

My Keeper Debate Just Got a Little More Intense

Now that Drew Brees is a potential victim for the Madden curse, I really need to start evaluating my priorities for potential keepers. Couldn't they just put Big Ben on the cover this year and take the guessing element out of it?

I'm glad I didn't keep Chris Johnson after all

I can't have my players driving around in things like this. It's insulting to the rest of my squad.

Goings On in the League

Gents,
It seems like it was so long ago that I (make that Jamaal Charles) thoroughly beat Taylor's ass in the championship game.  And yet, it was nary even 3 months ago.  I know most of you jerks are distracted by basketball for some reason right now, but since I don't have that handicap, I thought I would write a little note about some interesting developments in the past few months/weeks.

1. Thomas Jones WILL BE RELEASED sometime this week.  Sources say this will happen March 5. It looks like Tyler might have at least one keeper (Shonn Greene) on his team now.  As for Jones, this is interesting.  It's kind of hard to tell if he still has it or if the Jets' O-line was just that good.  Either way, I see a couple of teams who might be interested in picking him up: the Lions and perhaps the Patriots.  I would say Seattle but I doubt they would want both of the Joneses in their backfield.

2. LT was released.  This is no surprise.  I don't think he's got it anymore, and I think you would be wise to stay away from him, but, again, I could see the Lions and maybe the Hawks making him an offer.  Obviously, LT wouldn't want to play for the classless Bill Belichik.

3. Along those lines, Sproles wasn't offered a deal by the Chargers.  This is kind of surprising to me because the Chargers totally lack any depth if Sproles gets away. Now that I think about it, they might want to bring Thomas Jones aboard for some experience in the backfield.  They can probably get him for a fair price and they must have some confidence in Michael Bennett since he'll be all that's left.  I wasn't particularly impressed during the limited action he saw last season.

4. T.O. is out of Buffalo and headed...?  Sources seem to think that the Ravens are pretty interested.  Maybe they can bring back Jerry Rice and round out their receiving corps with Michael Irvin to complete the oldest bunch of wideouts ever to suit up.

5. Westbrook is gone.  This isn't really a surprise either.  Will McCoy be able to replace him?  It sure didn't seem that way, but Brandon's hoping he will.

Those are actual happenings, but I am pretty excited about this draft.  It is supposedly running-back heavy, but I'm not buying it.  This class might be one of the hardest to project into fantasy production, although that picture may clear once the draft actually happens.  I heard Best and Spiller both ran sub 4.4 40's, so Al Davis is probably going to try to make a move.  The Raiders definitely need more speed and another RB.

It will also be interesting to see what happens in the Cowboys' and Giants' backfields.  It seems oddly crowded, yet somehow necessary with how injury-prone they all are.  Alas, there aren't many really difficult keeper decisions to be made this off-season as I see it.  Taylor definitely has the toughest decision, especially if that Carolina backfield gets separated.  I rank Jason second in the decision-making dilemma.  I'm hoping there is a little more aggressiveness in the trade market from the perennial Loser's Bracket contenders.