The Waiting Game: Quarterback or Tight End?

At this point in our league's history, I would consider us all to be intelligent, strategical fantasy drafters. We've all made mistakes, but in most cases those mistakes were caused by following a logical progression that just didn't pan out. With that in mind, on draft day it becomes crucial, this year more than ever, to follow each manager's previous picks and predict what positions they plan to draft between your picks.

For instance, if you have two picks separated by two managers each picking twice, it is really important to know what these guys have on their roster and what they plan to do with those four picks between your two picks. If you notice both guys have a WR1 and WR2, there is a good chance they are going running back with one of their picks. If you have two running backs left on your board at the bottom of a tier, you may want to draft RB at that spot, even though a higher ranked WR is out there and you still need a WR1, because the chances are that the WR will be there for your next pick, but not either RB.

Where I think this really comes into play is during the run on QB's and TE's. I think both positions have higher value than the guys at yahoo, espn, and most other sites. But if you are on the bottomside of the run, you are possibly in a position to wait on either QB or TE and get really great value on the position in a much later round because other manager's won't have the need at those positions. For instance, in two drafts I've been able to snag Owen Daniels in one, and Chris Cooley in the other, in much later round than anticipated.

Now, I personally think the TE class is much deeper for a ten-team league than the QB class. At TE, I have Gates and Clark ranked as my two elite guys at the position. I have Vernon Davis just outside of that elite status, followed by Witten, Celek, Gonzalez, Finley, Daniels, Shiancoe, and Zack Miller. I don't see much of a difference between the bottom seven. All seven will get targets, red-zone looks, and will play on decent teams (yes, I think the Raiders will be decent this year, 7-9). Gates and Clarke are highly featured in their offense, and are proven veterans in the league. A team with either has a clear advantage at TE. Vernon Davis burst onto the scene last year, and was a great get for Jason, but most of his production came from TD's, which are harder to duplicate than yards. I still think he's in a class above the bottom seven. Regardless, Gates averaged 10.2 fantasy points per game last year. Celek averaged 9.1, Gonzo averaged 7.7, Shiancoe averaged 7.7, and Miller (without a decent quarterback) averaged 6.6. It's not a huge dropoff in terms of production. The point is, if the TE's are drafted in the order I have them ranked, and you are on the downside and have a choice between Daniels, Shiancoe or Finley, I think you can wait until the 12rd or so to snag one.

It's a similar situation for QBs, except having a good QB is much more important for fantasy success. I have Rodgers and Brees in a class of their own. Followed by a group of Manning, Brady, Rivers, Schaub, and Romo. Then, I think there is a somewhat significant dropoff to Favre, Cutler, Kolb, E. Manning. The biggest difference I see between the top seven, and the bottom four is consistency. I think you can play the top seven against any opponent and they will have a good game of at least 15 fantasy points. I think the bottom four are capable of putting up some pretty bad games. With Favre and Cutler you get the potential for huge games, and with Kolb and E.Manning you get the potential for two guys to develop into top-notch QBs in pass-heavy offenses. The difference between QB and TE is that there is a larger group of top talent at QB, than there is at TE. What that means is that if you have the opportunity to get in that top seven, I think you have to do it. If you miss, you can play the waiting game and snag one of the bottom four in a later round. Another difference is that most people have stronger feelings about the potential production of a QB rather than a TE. So, if you are in the bottom tier of QBs, but especially feel that Kolb will make that leap this year, or that Cutler will explode with Martz calling the shots, then you can't afford to wait as long as you may be able to for a TE.

This may have descended into a ramble, but there you go - my thoughts on the waiting game with QBs and TEs.